美大选主题:你比四年*过得更好吗?

你比四年前过得更好吗？里根（Ronald Reagan）在1980年总统竞选中向选民所提的这个问题现在开始笼罩2012年总统大选。

Barack Obama took office in January 2009-as credit markets stalled, stocks plunged and unemployment shot higher. Nearly four years later, many Americans have escaped the worst effects of the crisis. But they have made little progress beyond that, according to several measures of the U.S. economy.

奥巴马（Barack Obama）于2009年1月就任，当时随着信贷市场停滞，股票暴跌，失业率飙升。近四年后，许多美国人逃过了那次危机带来的最坏影响。但从美国经济的多个衡量指标来看，这些人除此之外并未取得多大进步。

The November vote is likely to turn on whether more Americans credit President Obama for averting financial catastrophe-a main assertion of his campaign-or blame him for a disappointingly weak recovery, the central message of Republican rival Mitt Romney.

今年11月的大选可能会取决于，认为奥巴马总统对阻止金融灾难有贡献（这是其一大竞选主张）的美国人多，还是认为他对令人失望的微弱复苏有责任（这是共和党总统候选人对手罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）向选民传递的一个核心信息）的人多。

Working-class Allentown and the surrounding area in the rolling hills of northeastern Pennsylvania reflect in many ways the overall U.S. economic experience and mood. Residents here have bounced back from some setbacks but are working harder to stay afloat.

在宾夕法尼亚州东北部连绵起伏的丘陵地带，以工人阶级为主的城市艾伦顿（Allentown）及其周边区域在一定程度上反映了美国整体的经济历程及民众的心态。这里的居民已经从某些挫折中反弹过来，但依然在加倍努力维持下去。

Jim Kelchner, 63 years old, lost his job when the housing bust triggered the closing of the lumber yard he managed. He collected unemployment insurance in 2009 for a few months. In 2010, he landed two part-time jobs: one as a maintenance man at a Lowe's store, the other working in the warehouse of Coca-Cola Park, home to the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, a triple-A minor league baseball team.

63岁的凯尔科纳（Jim Kelchner）管理着一座木料场，房地产泡沫破灭时，他丢了工作。2009年，他拿了几个月的失业保险。2010年，他找到了两份兼职：一份是在一家Lowe's商店做维修员，另一份是在可口可乐公园球场（Coca-Cola Park）的仓库工作。该球场是棒球小联盟3A球队Lehigh Valley IronPigs的主场。

Mr. Kelchner earns what he made in 2009, about $750 a week, but he has to work 75 hours-much more than before. 'I don't get to see my wife as often,' he said. The struggle, he added, has been 'just to get back to where I was.' He has voted for Democrats in the past but said he wasn't sure how he would vote in November.

凯尔科纳赚到了和2009年差不多的薪水，大约每周750美元，但每周得工作75小时，时间比以前多得多。他说，“我没法和以前一样经常见到我的妻子了。”他说自己一直如此奋力挣扎“也仅仅是跟原先差不多的状况”。他以前给民主党投票，但他说还不确定今年11月会投给谁。

Mr. Obama says he inherited a sick economy from Republicans that will take more time to heal. Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, says Mr. Obama made matters worse, and that he can better address the economy's problems.

奥巴马说，他从共和党人那里接手了处于萧条状态、需要更多时间恢复的经济。而马萨诸塞州前州长罗姆尼说，奥巴马让事态变得更糟了，而且说自己能更好地解决美国经济的问题。

Voters appear split over whom to believe. In the six Wall Street Journal/NBC News national polls dating back to January, Mr. Obama's handling of the economy has never won approving reviews from more than 45% of respondents, while between half and 53% have said they disapproved. The economy and jobs dwarf all other issues, according to the polls, yet Mr. Obama maintains a small lead over Mr. Romney.

在究竟该相信谁的问题上，选民似乎分成了两个阵营。在《华尔街日报》和美国广播公司（NBC）早在1月份所做的六项民调中，奥巴马对经济的处理手段均未获得超过45%受调查者的认可，表示不认可的人的比例在半数到53%之间。从这些调查来看，经济和就业是最突出的问题，但奥巴马目前依然以微弱优势领先罗姆尼。

The unemployment rate, at 8.3%, is higher under Mr. Obama than it has been for any president seeking re-election since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. On its face, that bodes poorly for Mr. Obama. But considering how high it was when he took office, at 7.8%, the figure is a more nuanced indicator.

奥巴马时期的失业率为8.3%，比罗斯福（Franklin Delano Roosevelt）以来寻求连任的任何一位总统在任时的失业率都高。表面来看这似乎对奥巴马不利。但考虑到他就任时高达7.8%的失业率，这个数字就是一个更微妙的指标了。

That is because the jobless rate rose more sharply, although from lower levels, during the first terms of some re-elected presidents. Since Mr. Obama's inauguration in January 2009, it has risen half a percentage point. During George W. Bush's first 42 months in office, it rose 1.3 percentage points, from 4.2% to 5.5%; and during Richard Nixon's first term it rose more than two points, from 3.4% to 5.6%.

这是因为在某些连任总统的首任任期中，失业率增长得更剧烈，尽管本来水平就比较低。自奥巴马2009年1月就任以来，失业率增长了0.5个百分点。小布什（George W. Bush）上任后的42个月中，失业率从4.2%升至5.5%，涨了1.3个百分点；在尼克松（Richard Nixon）的第一个任期期间，失业率的涨幅超过了两个点，从3.4%升至5.6%。

Presidents George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter saw rising unemployment during what turned out to be their last year in office, and they weren't re-elected. Under Mr. Obama, the rate has stagnated in 2012-a more favorable trend than the defeated presidents' showing.

在老布什（George H.W. Bush）和卡特（Jimmy Carter）的任期内，有一段时间失业率飙升，而这正好是他们任期的最后一年，最终他们没有连任。奥巴马任期内，失业率在2012年没有波动，与上述两位未能连任的总统相比，这是个更有利的趋势。

With the U.S. economy still balanced on a knife's edge between improvement and decline, movements one way or another in coming weeks could affect voter views more than usual. Growth in the second quarter of the year slowed to 1.5%, the government reported last month, too little to bring down unemployment.

美国经济会好转还是衰退，这还很难说，但无论如何，未来几周的动作都会异乎寻常地影响选民的看法。上个月公布，今年第二季度的增长减缓至1.5%，不足以拉低失业率。

Signs of an incomplete recovery abound. Companies are leaner and more efficient, but wary of investing or hiring. Consumers have reduced debts substantially, setting the stage for better times, but remain worried about stagnant income and unemployment.

复苏不彻底的迹象比比皆是。各公司规模更精简更有效率，但在投资和招人问题上谨小慎微。消费者大幅削减债务，努力为更好的光景打基础，但却依然担心收入停滞和失业。

'The greatest question for Mr. Obama is whether he can overcome disappointment with the way he handled the economy,' said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. The prior state of the economy is of scant importance to voters, he said: 'What he inherited and what he prevented doesn't have the same weight as the judgments people make about what they see now.'

皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）负责人科胡特（Andrew Kohut）说，“对奥巴马来说，最大的问题在于他是否能战胜人们对他处理经济的方式的失望情绪。”他说，美国经济之前的状况对选民并不重要，“他所接手的以及他所阻止的，与人们对他们现在所看到的东西做出的判断并不具有同样的分量。”

One metric looms ominously over Mr. Obama's re-election effort: real disposable income. A measure of income after inflation and taxes, real disposable income per person has fallen 0.3% during Mr. Obama's tenure. That compares poorly with presidents who successfully sought second terms and those who lost. The figure rose 10.2% under Mr. Nixon, 10% under Mr. Reagan, 5.2% under Mr. Clinton and