巴菲特终止所持美国市政债券CDS

位于内布拉斯加州奥马哈市的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司近日终止了为82.5亿美元市政债券承保的信用违约掉期(CDS)。该公司在本月提交给监管机构的季度备案文件中披露了此事。一个了解这笔交易的人说，这其实是将巴菲特在金融危机之前押下的美国10多个州将按时支付账单的*注提年结束。

The Omaha, Neb., company recently terminated credit-default swaps insuring $8.25 billion of municipal debt. The termination, disclosed in a quarterly filing with regulators this month, ended five years early a bullish bet that Mr. Buffett made before the financial crisis that more than a dozen U.S. states would keep paying their bills on time, according to a person familiar with the transaction.

CDS是一种与保险类似的合约，如发生债券违约，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司就要负责支付赔偿金。这位知情者说，这些CDS最初由雷曼兄弟控股公司(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)于2007年购买，也就是这个华尔街投行申请破产一年多以前。

The insurance-like contracts, which required Berkshire to pay in the event of bond defaults, were originally purchased by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2007, more than a year before the Wall Street firm filed for bankruptcy, the person said.

没有披露有关终止文件的细节。目前并不清楚此举会给伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的市政债券*注带来盈利还是亏损。该公司81岁的董事长兼首席执行长巴菲特拒绝置评。

Details of the termination, with the Lehman Brothers estate, weren't disclosed. It isn't clear whether Berkshire's move will leave the company with a profit or loss on the wager. Mr. Buffett, Berkshire's 81-year-old chairman and chief executive, declined to comment.

一些投资者说，决定终止这些CDS表明世界上最精明的投资者之一巴菲特对美国地方的财政状况持怀疑态度。若果真如此，那么此举对已经购买了这些债券的投资者可能是一个警告。对冲基金经理、个人持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票的马修斯(Jeff Matthews)说，巴菲特之所以提早取消CDS，很可能是不想再拥有这个敞口了，因此在能跑的时候就跑。

Some investors said the decision to end the bet indicates that one of the world's savviest investors has doubts about the state of municipal finances. If so, the move could be a warning to investors who have purchased such debt. In canceling the contracts early, Mr. Buffett probably 'doesn't want this exposure anymore and is getting out while he can,' said Jeff Matthews, a hedge-fund manager who personally owns Berkshire shares.

马里兰(University of Maryland)史密斯商(Robert H. Smith School of Business)教授、也持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票的卡斯(David Kass)说，巴菲特可能认为美国地方财政现在的风险要比当初伯克希尔建立此头寸时大。目前，投资者正疯狂买入市政债券，不断推高债券价格，压低收益率。一项跟踪高信用评级市政债券的指数年初至今的表现要好过美国国债。据数据提供商Lipper统计，投资者上周向美国市政债券共同基金注入了9.64亿美元，为连续第18周资金净流入。

David Kass, a professor at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business who also owns Berkshire shares, said Mr. Buffett may perceive more risk to municipalities than when Berkshire entered into the positions. Berkshire's move comes as investors are flooding into municipal debt, keeping bond prices high and yields low. An index of highly rated municipal bonds has outperformed government bonds so far this year. Last week, investors poured $964 million into municipal-bond mutual funds, marking 18 consecutive weeks of inflows, according to data firm Lipper.

上周四，美国加州发售了100亿美元短期债券，发售规模创今年以来市政债券之最。大型投资者对于这批债券的需求十分旺盛，从而使得加州能以0.33%和0.43%的利率发行2013年年中到期的债券，这些债券将帮助加州满足本财年的现金流需求。

Last Thursday, California sold $10 billion in short-term notes in the biggest municipal debt sale year to date. The offering saw strong demand from large investors, and California was able to borrow at rates of 0.33% and 0.43% for notes maturing in mid-2013 that will help the state meet its cash flow needs for the current fiscal year.

投资者本来可能视美国国债为市政债券的替代投资品，但前者较低的新发行量和超低收益率让投资者一直极为关注市政债券，尽管在这方面已经出现了很多警告标志，如加州已有三个城市按照联邦破产法第九章申请了破产保护。

A relatively low supply of new bonds being issued and ultralow yields on Treasury debt that investors might otherwise consider as an alternative to municipal bonds have kept interest in municipal bonds strong despite numerous warning flags, such as the Chapter 9 bankruptcy-protection filings by three California cities.

虽然市政债券出现违约的情况还很少见，但分析人士说，最近接二连三的破产申请令投资者不安。例如，加州斯托克顿市正提议将大幅削减债权人所获金额作为该市进行债务重组的一部分。穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)上周警告称，加州各地发行的市政债券的违约风险正在上升，原因是很多城市面临巨大的预算缺口。惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)周一发布报告预测说，很多地方的财政状况持续承压。

Although actual defaults remain rare, analysts said the recent bankruptcy filings raise troubling issues for investors. Stockton, Calif., for example, is proposing large reductions in the payments bondholders will receive as part of its restructuring. Moody's Investors Service warned last week that the 'risk of default on municipal bonds in California is rising' due to large budget gaps faced by many cities. A Fitch Ratings report Monday predicts 'continued stress for many local governments.'

伊利诺伊州金融管理局(Illinois Finance Authority)主席、为陷入财务困境的城市和公司提供咨询的机构Development Specialists Inc.首席执行长布兰德(Bill Brandt)说，此事需要引起关注。他说，这些地方的领导人中有很多似乎随时准备让债权人成为纳税者圣坛上的祭品，而不是让纳税者向债权人低头，而现实情况历来都是如此。