苹果评级遭无名机构下调 股价下跌

信不信由你，苹果(Apple)的股价也是会下跌的。

The stock is selling off this afternoon, one day after the tech juggernaut surpassed Microsoft as the largest U.S. company ever, measured by stock-market value.

苹果股票周二下午遭到抛售，而一天前，这家科技巨头刚刚超过微软(Microsoft)，成为史上市值最高的美国公司。

Shares are down 1.8% at $653.32, reversing earlier gains. The stock hit a fresh all-time high of $674.88 in midday trading, but started selling off as word circulated that a research outfit called Oracle Investment Research had downgraded Apple to hold from buy. (We'll admit, we had never heard of this firm until today when news of the downgrade starting spreading across Twitter).

苹果股价周二下跌了1.8%，至653.32美元，扭转了之前的涨势。周二午盘，苹果股价创下历史新高，达到674.88美元。但是，受研究机构Oracle Investment Research将苹果股票评级从买入下调至持有这一传闻的影响，投资者午后开始抛售苹果股票。(我们承认，评级下调的消息周二起在推特(Twitter)上被转发之前，我们从没有听说过这个研究机构的大名。)

"The hype concerns us," Oracle's Laurence Balter wrote in a note to clients, as he compared the current frenzy to when Microsoft and Cisco Systems previously were market-cap kings.

该机构的巴尔特(Laurence Balter)在给客户的报告里写道：炒作令我们担忧。他认为眼下这股投资苹果的热潮有点像微软和思科系统(Cisco Systems)登顶市值冠军宝座时受到的礼遇。

He cut his price target to $650 from $670.

他将自己对苹果股价的目标值从670美元调低至650美元。

Balter expressed concern about Apple's potential latest endeavor into the television business. Apple is seeking to shake up the TV market with a device that can carry live television, although it remains to be seen whether cable operators will bite.

巴尔特对苹果可能进军电视机业务的最新尝试表示担忧。苹果目前正设法通过一个播放电视直播节目的产品来重组电视市场，但有线运营商是否会"上钩"尚不得而知。

"We believe entering the low margin world of television set top boxes and TV is fraught with margin danger," Balter says.

巴尔特说，我们认为进入机顶盒和电视机这个低利润率行业存在利润率危险。

An Apple downgrade doesn't happen all that often, especially as most of Wall Street remains bullish. Last week Jefferies Group boosted its Apple price target to $900. And at least two analysts have predicted this year that Apple would top $1,000 a share, which would represent a 50% gain from Monday's closing level.

苹果股票评级遭下调的事情并不经常发生，特别是在大多数华尔街人士对苹果信心满满的时候。上周，杰富瑞集团(Jefferies Group)将苹果目标价上调至900美元。至少有两位分析师已在今年预测称，苹果股价将突破每股1,000美元，这意味着苹果要在周一收盘价的基础上再涨50%。

One of those analysts is Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets, who earlier today published a note calling Apple a "trillion-dollar baby." Apple surpassing the market value of Microsoft's 1999 peak removes "a key sentiment barrier" that had been keeping a lid on the stock in recent months, he says. And now investors should think of Apple's market cap in "trillions" and not "billions."

美资券商Topeka Capital Markets的怀特(Brian White)就是这样一位分析师。周二早些时候，他发布了一份报告，并将苹果称为"万亿美元宝贝"(trillion-dollar baby)。他说，苹果打破了微软在1999年创造的市值纪录，这会移除近几个月来遏制该股的关键性情绪障碍。怀特说，如今投资者应该用"万亿美元"这一数量级来畅想苹果未来的市值。

He has an $1,111 price target on Apple, which would carry its market cap above $1 trillion.

他认为苹果股价会增至1,111美元，届时苹果市值将突破1万亿美元大关。

Another bullish theme to keep in mind is valuation. Apple is much cheaper than previous companies that had high market caps. Companies including Cisco Systems, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, Intel and Microsoft at one time had market caps that approached or topped $500 billion. But they also had P/E ratios that topped 60.

还有一个需要牢记的看涨主题是估值。苹果现在的股价远远低于那些曾拥有庞大市值的公司。思科系统、埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)、通用电气(General Electric)、英特尔(Intel)和微软等公司的市值都曾逼近或超过5,000亿美元。不过，它们的市盈率也都曾超过60倍。

Apple's forward-year P/E ratio is 14.8, according to FactSet

据FactSet统计，苹果的预期市盈率为14.8倍。

"None of these companies delivered the annual [earnings] growth that Apple has achieved over the past seven years," White says.

怀特说，上述这些公司没有一家的年利润增速能比得上苹果过去七年的表现。

Apple also doesn't dominate its broad sector like Microsoft, Intel or Cisco did at their peaks. Microsoft held more than a 90% market share for PC operating systems at one time, Intel had 80% of the PC processor market and Cisco had more than 70% of the networking market, White notes. Apple, on the other hand, only holds a fraction of the mobile market, while dominating the tablet market.

苹果目前并没有在其主营领域处于支配地位，而微软、英特尔或思科系统都曾在巅峰时期获得过这一地位。怀特在报告中指出，微软曾一度控制着个人电脑操作系统逾90%的市场份额，英特尔曾占有80%的个人电脑处理器市场，思科在网络市场中的份额也曾达到70%以上。反观苹果，它占移动市场的份额仅为很小一部分，尽管在平板电脑市场处于支配地位。

So while there are many reasons to be bullish, the big question is how long can Apple keep up the dominance? The bigger it gets, the harder it is to keep growing at a speed that will keep pleasing Wall Street.

虽然看涨苹果的理由有很多，但目前一个很重要的问题是：苹果的这种支配地位还能保持多久？这个地位越巩固，苹果就越难保持令华尔街满意的增长速度。

Balter of Oracle Investment cited a famous quote in his report: "Anything that can't go on forever…will end."

巴尔特在报告中引用了一句名言：任何事情若无法永远持续，则必将终止。